Wake up.

Stop watching CNBC. Stop listening to the dinosaur in the cheap suit telling you that "fundamentals are strong." He’s lying to you. He’s lying to keep you calm while he dumps his bags on your front porch.

I look at the data nobody else sees. I see the raw tapes. I see the bid-ask spreads in the dark pools. And I am telling you right now: The Commercial Debt Market is a walking corpse. It’s dead. It just hasn't hit the floor yet.

The $1.5 Trillion Wall

Here is the math they don’t want you to do. Over $1.5 trillion in commercial real estate debt is coming due for refinancing.

These loans were written when money was free. They were written at 3% interest rates on buildings that were 95% occupied. Now? Money costs 8%, and those office towers are empty ghost towns because "Remote Work" killed the landlord.

Do you understand what happens when a building worth $50 million has a $40 million loan coming due, but the bank says the building is now only worth $30 million?

"Implosion. The equity is gone. Vaporized. The keys are being mailed back to the bank. But the bank doesn't want the keys."

The bank is already insolvent; they just haven't marked the assets to market yet. They are playing "Extend and Pretend." They are praying for a miracle.

I don't pray. I execute.

The "Extend and Pretend" Scam

Right now, regional banks and private credit funds are sitting on mountains of toxic commercial paper. They are refusing to sell it because if they sell it at the real price, they have to book the loss. If they book the loss, their stock goes to zero, and the FDIC rolls up with a padlock on Friday afternoon.

So they wait. They bleed. And they hope.

Hope is not a strategy. Hope is for victims.

While they hope, the sharks are circling. The smart money—my money, my network—is waiting for the capitulation. We aren't buying at 80 cents on the dollar. We are waiting for 20 cents. And we are going to get it.

The Kill Zone

We are entering the Kill Zone. This is the part of the cycle where the weak hands get severed.

• If you are a Creditor: You need to dump this paper yesterday. You are holding a grenade with the pin pulled. You need liquidity now, not in six months when the market is flooded.
• If you are a Buyer: Keep your powder dry. The sale of the century is starting, but you need the access to get in the room. You don't buy on Zillow. You buy through mandates.

The Endgame

This isn't a recession. This is a correction of reality.

The fake wealth created by zero-interest rates is being deleted. The only thing that survives is Cash Flow and Collateral.

I have positioned my ecosystem for this exact moment. Fitzgerald Advisors is the fortress where we process the liquidation. Search Receivables is where we track the data. I am the one telling you the truth.

You have two choices right now. You can be the sheep that gets sheared, waiting for the Fed to save you. Or you can be the wolf.

The crash is coming. I’ve already built the lifeboat. The question is, can you afford the ticket?

- The Don